Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 2?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $114 held · ends Nov 2

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$114.04

Combined PnL

$43.84

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$38.14

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$13.24

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.22

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$30.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$192.67	$70.68	-$172.34	50% 673-674 (1347)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$32.92	$38.27	+$11.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.7¢	$224.27	$32.41	-$183.86
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 70¢	$24.9	$38.14	+$13.24	50% 1908-1873 (3781)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$84.3	$5.22	+$30.6	59% 1921-1351 (3272)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$192.67

Value

$70.68

PnL

-$172.34

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

Both legs:

No$32.9274¢+$11.51

Yes$224.2727.7¢-$183.86

hello.67<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$38.14

PnL

+$13.24

Record

50%

1908-1873 (3781)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.3

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$30.6

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.