Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 2?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 100¢ · $982 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$981.86

Combined PnL

$188.17

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$979.8

Total Shares980

Combined PnL+$206.34

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.04

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$18.17

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 66.5¢	$405.35	$603.07	+$203.92	50% 723-715 (1438)
24 241532532432	Noavg 77.5¢	$282.75	$363.24	+$1.93	60% 2191-1470 (3661)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$5.85	$6.86	+$1.01	45% 908-1127 (2035)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$71.71	$6.64	-$0.52	57% 16444-12573 (29017)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$11.87	$0.81	-$11.06	50% 2020-1992 (4012)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$38.63	$0.46	-$4.21	53% 7309-6449 (13758)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.35	$0.3	-$1.05	57% 3693-2731 (6424)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.16	$0.16	+$0	42% 644-895 (1539)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.1	+$0.05	39% 678-1048 (1726)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.08	$0.1	-$0.98	39% 529-813 (1342)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.01	$0.1	-$0.91	42% 707-967 (1674)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$405.35

Value

$603.07

PnL

+$203.92

Record

50%

723-715 (1438)

241532532432

Invested

$282.75

Value

$363.24

PnL

+$1.93

Record

60%

2191-1470 (3661)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$1.01

Record

45%

908-1127 (2035)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$71.71

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0.52

Record

57%

16444-12573 (29017)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$11.06

Record

50%

2020-1992 (4012)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.63

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$4.21

Record

53%

7309-6449 (13758)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.05

Record

57%

3693-2731 (6424)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

644-895 (1539)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

678-1048 (1726)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.98

Record

39%

529-813 (1342)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.91

Record

42%

707-967 (1674)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.