Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 59¢ · $672 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$671.54
-$4.28
53.8¢ → 58.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $364.39 | $352.72 | -$11.67 | 51% 623-608 (1231) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $124.35 | $119.89 | -$4.46 | 59% 1723-1189 (2912) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $104.84 | $100 | -$1.99 | 21% 295-1102 (1397) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $58.83 | $52 | -$6.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $43 | $48 | +$5 | |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.9¢ | $83.79 | $95.99 | +$12.2 | 61% 20945-13330 (34275) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $7.8 | $2.94 | -$0.35 | 57% 13544-10382 (23926) |
Invested
$364.39
Value
$352.72
PnL
-$11.67
Record
51%
623-608 (1231)
Invested
$124.35
Value
$119.89
PnL
-$4.46
Record
59%
1723-1189 (2912)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$104.84
Value
$100
PnL
-$1.99
Record
21%
295-1102 (1397)
Both legs:
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$83.79
Value
$95.99
PnL
+$12.2
Record
61%
20945-13330 (34275)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$0.35
Record
57%
13544-10382 (23926)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.