Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 7?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $152 held · ended Nov 7

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$151.52

Combined PnL

$115.17

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$83.57

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$72.15

No4 traders

Total Value$67.95

Total Shares83

Combined PnL+$43.02

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$10.72	$79.31	+$68.59	37% 903-1557 (2460)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 67¢	$47.1	$46.82	-$0.28	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 2.6¢	$1.87	$11.51	+$40.85	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$20.32	$7.11	+$2.76	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$0.7	$4.26	+$3.56	42% 2420-3372 (5792)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.8	$2.5	-$0.3	52% 31275-29168 (60443)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.72

Value

$79.31

PnL

+$68.59

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$47.1

Value

$46.82

PnL

-$0.28

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.87

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$40.85

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.32

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$2.76

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$3.56

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

31275-29168 (60443)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.