Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 6?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$190.78
$61.2
68.7¢ → 83.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 67¢ | $340.81 | $163.11 | +$61.16 | 41% 832-1198 (2030) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 84¢ | $126.21 | $13.73 | -$7.3 | 13% 525-3366 (3891) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $1.87 | $7.08 | +$5.22 | 17% 4489-21974 (26463) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $5.15 | $4.99 | +$0.26 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yes | $1.87 | $1.87 | +$1.87 | 44% 2281-2898 (5179) |
Invested
$340.81
Value
$163.11
PnL
+$61.16
Record
41%
832-1198 (2030)
IstarothInvested
$126.21
Value
$13.73
PnL
-$7.3
Record
13%
525-3366 (3891)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.87
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$5.22
Record
17%
4489-21974 (26463)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.87
PnL
+$1.87
Record
44%
2281-2898 (5179)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.