Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 8?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 70¢ · $410 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$409.92
-$25.35
74.4¢ → 70¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $835.89 | $348.33 | -$23.51 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $37.9 | $36.16 | -$1.75 | 32% 2247-4752 (6999) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $17.34 | $17.25 | -$0.09 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $8.18 | $8.18 | +$0 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$835.89
Value
$348.33
PnL
-$23.51
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$37.9
Value
$36.16
PnL
-$1.75
Record
32%
2247-4752 (6999)
Invested
$17.34
Value
$17.25
PnL
-$0.09
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$8.18
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.