Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 4?

19 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$189.28

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 70.5¢

+3% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,730

Combined PnL+$151.24

Yes2 traders

Total Value$88.11

Total Shares315

Combined PnL+$38.04

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 76.9¢	$856.27	$397.32	-$15.57	42% 788-1101 (1889)
24 241532532432	Noavg 75.2¢	$232.79	$229.86	-$2.93	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 63.3¢	$234.71	$198.09	+$29.11	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 24.3¢	$74.46	$129.77	+$154.24	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
Lucerys	Noavg 70.2¢	$169.94	$113.98	+$1.29	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$31.82	$48.97	+$17.15	56% 621-495 (1116)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$18.25	$39.14	+$20.89	20% 2535-10042 (12577)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$46.88	$31.24	+$1.13	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$46.07	$30.19	-$3.46	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$54.93	$29.02	-$6.13	53% 9883-8605 (18488)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$16.49	$15.15	-$1.34	39% 1000-1544 (2544)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80¢	$60.24	$14.5	-$1.88	15% 447-2555 (3002)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$15.66	$13.69	-$1.97	43% 2149-2803 (4952)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$18.48	$13.68	-$0.72	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$29.68	$13.21	+$0.71	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 72.3¢	$12.43	$12.12	-$0.31	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$28.81	$11.43	-$0.93	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$12.37	$9.95	-$0.62	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$11.02	$9.47	+$1.58	49% 527-555 (1082)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$8.51	$7.04	-$1.47	39% 5418-8450 (13868)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$28.62	$3.76	+$0.5	41% 1145-1641 (2786)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$856.27

Value

$397.32

PnL

-$15.57

Record

42%

788-1101 (1889)

241532532432

Invested

$232.79

Value

$229.86

PnL

-$2.93

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$234.71

Value

$198.09

PnL

+$29.11

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

haveagoodday

Invested

$74.46

Value

$129.77

PnL

+$154.24

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

Lucerys

Invested

$169.94

Value

$113.98

PnL

+$1.29

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.82

Value

$48.97

PnL

+$17.15

Record

56%

621-495 (1116)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.25

Value

$39.14

PnL

+$20.89

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.88

Value

$31.24

PnL

+$1.13

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$46.07

Value

$30.19

PnL

-$3.46

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$54.93

Value

$29.02

PnL

-$6.13

Record

53%

9883-8605 (18488)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$16.49

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$1.34

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$60.24

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$1.88

Record

15%

447-2555 (3002)

123987456<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$1.97

Record

43%

2149-2803 (4952)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$18.48

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$29.68

Value

$13.21

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$12.43

Value

$12.12

PnL

-$0.31

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$28.81

Value

$11.43

PnL

-$0.93

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.62

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$9.47

PnL

+$1.58

Record

49%

527-555 (1082)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$8.51

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$1.47

Record

39%

5418-8450 (13868)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$28.62

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.5

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 21 top traders (90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.