Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 5?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 86¢ · $596 held · ends Nov 5

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$596.3

Combined PnL

$128.88

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 86¢

+20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$466.84

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$181.24

Yes4 traders

Total Value$129.46

Total Shares805

Combined PnL-$52.36

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 69.5¢	$342.24	$155.1	+$27.44	14% 513-3102 (3615)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 75¢	$123.69	$143.55	+$18.98	56% 669-527 (1196)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$70.1	$76.14	+$6.04	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$523.01	$75.84	-$60.74	40% 827-1216 (2043)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$42.3	$52.2	+$9.9	61% 16044-10354 (26398)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$30.73	$44.98	+$3.16	53% 3941-3503 (7444)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$68.74	$13.26	+$1.37	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 7.6¢	$11.11	$7.91	+$116.12	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$2.45	$7.25	+$4.8	48% 2187-2410 (4597)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$4.96	$5.47	+$0.51	61% 15009-9460 (24469)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.04	$4.57	+$0.53	47% 775-863 (1638)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.21	$4.36	+$0.15	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$10	$4.28	+$0.2	44% 2233-2896 (5129)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.98	$1.39	+$0.42	18% 4430-20777 (25207)

Istaroth

Invested

$342.24

Value

$155.1

PnL

+$27.44

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$123.69

Value

$143.55

PnL

+$18.98

Record

56%

669-527 (1196)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$70.1

Value

$76.14

PnL

+$6.04

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$523.01

Value

$75.84

PnL

-$60.74

Record

40%

827-1216 (2043)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$42.3

Value

$52.2

PnL

+$9.9

Record

61%

16044-10354 (26398)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.73

Value

$44.98

PnL

+$3.16

Record

53%

3941-3503 (7444)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$68.74

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$1.37

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.11

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$116.12

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$4.8

Record

48%

2187-2410 (4597)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$0.51

Record

61%

15009-9460 (24469)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.53

Record

47%

775-863 (1638)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.21

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

123987456<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.2

Record

44%

2233-2896 (5129)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.42

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.