Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 3?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 56¢ · $283 held · ends Nov 3

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$282.73

Combined PnL

-$2.28

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 56¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$241.85

Total Shares443

Combined PnL-$5.55

No5 traders

Total Value$40.88

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$3.27

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 50.3¢	$113.97	$114.43	+$0.47	48% 746-817 (1563)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 54.2¢	$59.51	$55.42	-$4.09	50% 2041-2006 (4047)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$35.43	$35.17	-$0	17% 399-1952 (2351)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$29.79	$27.86	-$1.93	54% 3380-2917 (6297)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.2	$14.85	+$1.65	63% 12938-7717 (20655)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$13.41	$14.75	+$1.34	53% 3175-2836 (6011)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$8.97	$8.97	+$0	54% 7492-6399 (13891)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.74	$8.74	-$0	92% 8583-746 (9329)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.17	$1.31	+$0.15	44% 4026-5205 (9231)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.1	$1.24	+$0.14	60% 7177-4733 (11910)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$113.97

Value

$114.43

PnL

+$0.47

Record

48%

746-817 (1563)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.51

Value

$55.42

PnL

-$4.09

Record

50%

2041-2006 (4047)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.43

Value

$35.17

PnL

-$0

Record

17%

399-1952 (2351)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.79

Value

$27.86

PnL

-$1.93

Record

54%

3380-2917 (6297)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$1.65

Record

63%

12938-7717 (20655)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$13.41

Value

$14.75

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

3175-2836 (6011)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

7492-6399 (13891)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$8.74

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$0

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

4026-5205 (9231)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.14

Record

60%

7177-4733 (11910)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.