Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 6?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 6

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$476.84

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 94.5¢

+75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,259

Combined PnL+$508.06

No3 traders

Total Value$11.76

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$31.22

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 63.2¢	$481.94	$709.45	+$227.51	32% 2228-4734 (6962)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 38.9¢	$335.53	$441.74	+$272.6	40% 854-1295 (2149)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$10.6	$18.6	+$7.7	62% 667-404 (1071)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 31.4¢	$36.1	$9.2	-$26.9	57% 736-565 (1301)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$1.22	$1.47	+$0.25	26% 7359-21131 (28490)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$2.26	$1.35	-$0.13	52% 31055-29024 (60079)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$54.91	$1.22	-$4.19	58% 21386-15516 (36902)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$481.94

Value

$709.45

PnL

+$227.51

Record

32%

2228-4734 (6962)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$335.53

Value

$441.74

PnL

+$272.6

Record

40%

854-1295 (2149)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$7.7

Record

62%

667-404 (1071)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$36.1

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$26.9

Record

57%

736-565 (1301)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.25

Record

26%

7359-21131 (28490)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

31055-29024 (60079)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$54.91

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$4.19

Record

58%

21386-15516 (36902)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.