Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 2?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $622 held · ends Nov 2

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$622.3

Combined PnL

-$20.34

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 87¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$352.53

Total Shares495

Combined PnL-$11.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.53

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$9.25

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 84¢	$318.68	$303.45	-$15.23	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$236.22	$240.25	+$6.82	50% 725-718 (1443)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.5¢	$187.2	$187.2	+$25.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.6¢	$74.16	$53.05	-$18.32
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77¢	$32.7	$38.75	+$6.04	17% 393-1939 (2332)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$38.54	$29.29	-$9.25	55% 554-446 (1000)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$35.96	$10.33	-$1.9	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.23	$0.23	+$0	38% 751-1204 (1955)

hello.67

Invested

$318.68

Value

$303.45

PnL

-$15.23

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$236.22

Value

$240.25

PnL

+$6.82

Record

50%

725-718 (1443)

Both legs:

No$187.270.5¢+$25.14

Yes$74.1626.6¢-$18.32

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$38.75

PnL

+$6.04

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.54

Value

$29.29

PnL

-$9.25

Record

55%

554-446 (1000)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.96

Value

$10.33

PnL

-$1.9

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.