Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 15?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 100¢ · $913 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$913.46

Combined PnL

-$49.99

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 99.8¢

+4% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$911.46

Total Shares913

Combined PnL+$38.49

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.76

Total Shares352

Combined PnL-$88.48

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.5¢	$397.98	$420.75	+$22.77	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 95.3¢	$196.03	$205.54	+$9.51	68% 89-42 (131)
AL Alegrandebig<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$99.8	$99.75	-$0.05	67% 29-14 (43)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94¢	$38.48	$40.9	+$2.42	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$24.96	$26.2	+$1.24	38% 329-529 (858)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$24.91	$25.44	+$0.53	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$27.37	$19.48	+$1.47	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$14.26	$14.27	+$0.01	58% 864-619 (1483)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$12.45	$12.5	+$0.05	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$10.82	$10.99	+$0.17	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.18	$10.16	-$0.02	60% 874-593 (1467)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99¢	$8.91	$8.99	+$0.08	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.1	$4.32	+$0.21	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.18	$4.17	-$0.01	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$3.92	$4	+$0.08	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.99	$4	+$0.01	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$90.24	$1.76	-$88.48	54% 1125-974 (2099)

241532532432

Invested

$397.98

Value

$420.75

PnL

+$22.77

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$196.03

Value

$205.54

PnL

+$9.51

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

Alegrandebig<$100

Invested

$99.8

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.48

Value

$40.9

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$1.24

Record

38%

329-529 (858)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$24.91

Value

$25.44

PnL

+$0.53

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.37

Value

$19.48

PnL

+$1.47

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$14.27

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10.82

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.17

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.18

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$0.02

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.24

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$88.48

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.