Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on November 5?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $261 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$261.41

Combined PnL

-$0

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$261.2

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$0

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.6¢	$115.67	$115.64	-$0.04	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.83	$39.84	+$0.01	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$35.45	$35.47	+$0.02	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$20.38	$20.38	-$0	47% 2220-2477 (4697)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$13.25	$13.25	-$0	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.17	$10.17	+$0	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$28.62	$9.96	+$0.01	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$8.96	$8.95	-$0	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.26	$5.26	-$0.01	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.29	$2.29	-$0	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.2	$0.2	+$0	35% 18318-34086 (52404)

Lucerys

Invested

$115.67

Value

$115.64

PnL

-$0.04

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.83

Value

$39.84

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$35.45

Value

$35.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.38

Value

$20.38

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.25

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.17

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$28.62

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$0.01

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.