Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on November 6?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $139 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$139.16

Combined PnL

-$10.8

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$138.94

Total Shares150

Combined PnL-$10.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.74

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$71.77	$71.53	-$0.24	76% 13009-4160 (17169)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$24.45	-$5.43	47% 8465-9653 (18118)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$18.47	$18.42	-$0.05	41% 2307-3348 (5655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$18.8	$15.38	-$3.42	39% 1093-1720 (2813)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.98	$4.97	-$0.01	42% 1214-1706 (2920)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.1	$4.19	-$0.91	41% 1144-1648 (2792)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.14	+$0.1	18% 4421-20724 (25145)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.94	$0.09	-$0.85	43% 3211-4248 (7459)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$71.77

Value

$71.53

PnL

-$0.24

Record

76%

13009-4160 (17169)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$24.45

PnL

-$5.43

Record

47%

8465-9653 (18118)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$18.47

Value

$18.42

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

2307-3348 (5655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$15.38

PnL

-$3.42

Record

39%

1093-1720 (2813)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

1214-1706 (2920)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$0.91

Record

41%

1144-1648 (2792)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.1

Record

18%

4421-20724 (25145)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.85

Record

43%

3211-4248 (7459)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.