Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 5?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 59¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 5

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$428.11

Combined PnL

$17.54

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 58.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$260.92

Total Shares414

Combined PnL+$31.79

No8 traders

Total Value$167.19

Total Shares412

Combined PnL-$14.25

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 55.2¢	$224.09	$255.82	+$31.73	44% 797-1006 (1803)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$82.09	$80.1	-$2	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$52.69	$42.96	-$9.73	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$32.65	$17.88	+$1.39	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$15.03	$13.5	-$1.53	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$6.53	$5.31	-$1.22	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$11.95	$3.7	-$0.45	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yes	$2.76	$2.76	+$0	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$3.11	$2.62	-$0.49	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$2.28	$2.34	+$0.06	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$1.35	$1.14	-$0.22	40% 2175-3220 (5395)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$224.09

Value

$255.82

PnL

+$31.73

Record

44%

797-1006 (1803)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$82.09

Value

$80.1

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$52.69

Value

$42.96

PnL

-$9.73

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$32.65

Value

$17.88

PnL

+$1.39

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$15.03

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$1.53

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$6.53

Value

$5.31

PnL

-$1.22

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$11.95

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.45

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$0.49

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.22

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.