Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 6?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 44¢ · $382 held · ends Nov 6

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$382.4

Combined PnL

$17.9

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 44¢

+8% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$334.73

Total Shares761

Combined PnL+$19.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$47.29

Total Shares89

Combined PnL-$1.1

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Noavg 41.5¢	$352.92	$216.72	+$7.92	14% 513-3102 (3615)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$48.4	$47.29	-$1.1	40% 827-1216 (2043)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$28.92	$31.68	+$2.76	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	$19.12	$22.64	+$3.52	47% 8498-9698 (18196)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 35.8¢	$17.57	$21.57	+$4	46% 10395-12108 (22503)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 34.6¢	$5.53	$7.04	+$1.51	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$7.09	$6.89	-$0.19	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$6.37	$6.22	-$0.14	42% 1223-1712 (2935)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$6.35	$6.21	-$0.14	41% 1160-1663 (2823)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$4.63	$4.52	-$0.1	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$3.16	$3.16	-$0	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.36	$2.26	-$0.1	41% 1232-1796 (3028)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.36	$2.25	-$0.1	39% 1105-1735 (2840)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.35	$2.25	-$0.1	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$2.52	$1.31	+$0.18	58% 20277-14893 (35170)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$352.92

Value

$216.72

PnL

+$7.92

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.4

Value

$47.29

PnL

-$1.1

Record

40%

827-1216 (2043)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$28.92

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$2.76

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$19.12

Value

$22.64

PnL

+$3.52

Record

47%

8498-9698 (18196)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$17.57

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$4

Record

46%

10395-12108 (22503)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.53

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$7.09

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$0.14

Record

42%

1223-1712 (2935)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$0.14

Record

41%

1160-1663 (2823)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.1

Record

39%

1105-1735 (2840)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.