Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 2?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$109.14

Combined PnL

-$0.61

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$109.14

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$0.61

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$53.78	$53.41	-$0.38	79% 10611-2762 (13373)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$25.24	$25.26	+$0.02	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$14.24	$14.12	-$0.11	37% 758-1274 (2032)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.49	$8.42	-$0.07	72% 12199-4795 (16994)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5	$4.96	-$0.04	36% 635-1125 (1760)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3	$2.98	-$0.02	60% 7178-4743 (11921)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$53.78

Value

$53.41

PnL

-$0.38

Record

79%

10611-2762 (13373)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$25.24

Value

$25.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$14.12

PnL

-$0.11

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$8.49

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

72%

12199-4795 (16994)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

60%

7178-4743 (11921)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.