Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$486.63
-$23.5
80¢ → 82¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 80.6¢ | $176.03 | $179.11 | +$3.08 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $132.5 | $139.37 | +$0.35 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $132.89 | $106.59 | -$26.3 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $56.49 | $48.18 | -$2.02 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $19.36 | $13.39 | +$1.39 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$176.03
Value
$179.11
PnL
+$3.08
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$132.5
Value
$139.37
PnL
+$0.35
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$132.89
Value
$106.59
PnL
-$26.3
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$56.49
Value
$48.18
PnL
-$2.02
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Invested
$19.36
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$1.39
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.