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YesYes
balthazarCTR<$100NoNoNoNo
Istaroth<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 1?
Resolved Yes. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$235.83
Combined PnL
$150.05
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$235.83
Total Shares236
Combined PnL+$150.05
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 43%No — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $89.79 | $234.68 | +$149.29 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $0.39 | $1.15 | +$0.76 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 62.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 39.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
24
241532532432Invested
$89.79
Value
$234.68
PnL
+$149.29
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100Invested
$0.39
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.76
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xdae0a8a2...96426f
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-november-1-2026-33c