Back to Markets
Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoYesNoNo
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
Istaroth<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$41.45
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares126
Combined PnL-$41.45
No6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $41.45 | — | -$41.45 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20984-13348 (34332) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6484-5687 (12171) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 300-1148 (1448) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15335-27408 (42743) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$41.45
Value
—
PnL
-$41.45
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20984-13348 (34332)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6484-5687 (12171)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
300-1148 (1448)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15335-27408 (42743)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x6e738146...c04381
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-30-2026-33c