Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 31?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 53¢ · $750 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$750.22
$24.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 55¢ | $473.69 | $412.05 | -$44.79 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $149.35 | $207.22 | +$57.87 | 55% 410-333 (743) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $106.48 | $113.98 | +$7.5 | 59% 1805-1255 (3060) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $65.7 | $69.08 | +$3.39 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.1¢ | $40.78 | $44.89 | +$4.11 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $5.48 | $16.97 | +$11.49 | 57% 13766-10533 (24299) |
IstarothInvested
$473.69
Value
$412.05
PnL
-$44.79
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Invested
$149.35
Value
$207.22
PnL
+$57.87
Record
55%
410-333 (743)
Invested
$106.48
Value
$113.98
PnL
+$7.5
Record
59%
1805-1255 (3060)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.48
Value
$16.97
PnL
+$11.49
Record
57%
13766-10533 (24299)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.