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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNo
Istaroth<$100NoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$167.31
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares741
Combined PnL-$167.31
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 43%No — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $127.13 | — | -$127.12 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $42.82 | — | -$40.19 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 81.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$127.13
Value
—
PnL
-$127.12
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$42.82
Value
—
PnL
-$40.19
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x992709ae...319c73
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-november-1-2026-34c