Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $358 held · ends Oct 31

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$358.28

Combined PnL

$6.43

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 66.5¢

-14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$328.57

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$1.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.71

Total Shares146

Combined PnL+$7.45

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 75.1¢	$165.46	$167.5	+$2.04	50% 640-628 (1268)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$68.42	$64.11	-$4.31	50% 1806-1787 (3593)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 80¢	$58.42	$56.96	+$1.64	59% 1779-1231 (3010)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80¢	$40.8	$40	-$0.4	20% 308-1212 (1520)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$12.66	$23.85	+$7.02	55% 394-317 (711)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.6¢	$9.37	$5.86	+$0.44	57% 13663-10453 (24116)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$165.46

Value

$167.5

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

640-628 (1268)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$68.42

Value

$64.11

PnL

-$4.31

Record

50%

1806-1787 (3593)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$58.42

Value

$56.96

PnL

+$1.64

Record

59%

1779-1231 (3010)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$40

PnL

-$0.4

Record

20%

308-1212 (1520)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.66

Value

$23.85

PnL

+$7.02

Record

55%

394-317 (711)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.37

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.44

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.