Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $394 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$394.14
$3.14
76.6¢ → 82¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 79.3¢ | $169.07 | $173.66 | +$4.59 | 50% 1675-1660 (3335) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $151.81 | $144.18 | -$7.63 | 51% 596-562 (1158) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $58.46 | $64.06 | +$5.6 | 60% 1624-1083 (2707) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $8.08 | $8.01 | -$0 | 25% 283-842 (1125) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.65 | $4.23 | +$0.58 | 57% 13182-10034 (23216) |
Invested
$169.07
Value
$173.66
PnL
+$4.59
Record
50%
1675-1660 (3335)
Invested
$151.81
Value
$144.18
PnL
-$7.63
Record
51%
596-562 (1158)
Invested
$58.46
Value
$64.06
PnL
+$5.6
Record
60%
1624-1083 (2707)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$8.08
Value
$8.01
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
283-842 (1125)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0.58
Record
57%
13182-10034 (23216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.