Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 5?
12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 71¢ · $451 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 92%
$450.7
-$19.21
84.6¢ → 71¢
-16% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bilberry | Noavg 82.7¢ | $126.04 | $118.08 | -$7.96 | 53% 3825-3406 (7231) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $102.21 | $96.88 | -$5.34 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $66.13 | $58.12 | -$8.01 | 53% 22636-19888 (42524) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $72.91 | $42.84 | -$5.63 | 77% 12539-3686 (16225) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $18.83 | $34.23 | +$15.4 | 58% 2493-1822 (4315) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $28.38 | $28.99 | +$0.61 | 49% 8853-9359 (18212) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $30.33 | $25.7 | -$4.62 | 54% 10037-8676 (18713) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $27.79 | $11.05 | -$1.4 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $11.14 | $10.35 | -$0.79 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $10.47 | $9.92 | -$0.55 | 50% 659-658 (1317) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $9.02 | $8.53 | -$0.49 | 47% 8368-9535 (17903) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $5.02 | $4.69 | -$0.33 | 58% 6502-4666 (11168) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $1.41 | $1.32 | -$0.09 | 39% 1087-1679 (2766) |
Invested
$126.04
Value
$118.08
PnL
-$7.96
Record
53%
3825-3406 (7231)
Invested
$102.21
Value
$96.88
PnL
-$5.34
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
$66.13
Value
$58.12
PnL
-$8.01
Record
53%
22636-19888 (42524)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$72.91
Value
$42.84
PnL
-$5.63
Record
77%
12539-3686 (16225)
Invested
$18.83
Value
$34.23
PnL
+$15.4
Record
58%
2493-1822 (4315)
Invested
$28.38
Value
$28.99
PnL
+$0.61
Record
49%
8853-9359 (18212)
Invested
$30.33
Value
$25.7
PnL
-$4.62
Record
54%
10037-8676 (18713)
Invested
$27.79
Value
$11.05
PnL
-$1.4
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$11.14
Value
$10.35
PnL
-$0.79
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
Invested
$10.47
Value
$9.92
PnL
-$0.55
Record
50%
659-658 (1317)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$8.53
PnL
-$0.49
Record
47%
8368-9535 (17903)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
6502-4666 (11168)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$0.09
Record
39%
1087-1679 (2766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.