Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 4?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 50¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$200.61
$2.09
51.7¢ → 50¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $106.64 | $103.5 | -$3.14 | 58% 2437-1780 (4217) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 45.4¢ | $26.89 | $30.23 | +$3.35 | 49% 8180-8437 (16617) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $22.13 | $25.52 | +$3.39 | 79% 11666-3099 (14765) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $21.76 | $21.29 | -$0.47 | 54% 26699-22417 (49116) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $13.33 | $12.24 | -$1.09 | 53% 8999-8039 (17038) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.55 | +$0.05 | 50% 472-469 (941) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 53% 6386-5650 (12036) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 57% 17905-13394 (31299) |
Invested
$106.64
Value
$103.5
PnL
-$3.14
Record
58%
2437-1780 (4217)
Invested
$26.89
Value
$30.23
PnL
+$3.35
Record
49%
8180-8437 (16617)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$22.13
Value
$25.52
PnL
+$3.39
Record
79%
11666-3099 (14765)
balthazar<$100Invested
$21.76
Value
$21.29
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
26699-22417 (49116)
Invested
$13.33
Value
$12.24
PnL
-$1.09
Record
53%
8999-8039 (17038)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
472-469 (941)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6386-5650 (12036)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
17905-13394 (31299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.