Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 3?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 66¢ · $408 held · ended Nov 3

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$408.28

Combined PnL

$98.15

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 66¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$348.68

Total Shares556

Combined PnL+$103.34

No4 traders

Total Value$59.6

Total Shares174

Combined PnL-$5.19

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 33.1¢	$59.02	$158.26	+$102.22	48% 2103-2265 (4368)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 59.6¢	$138.86	$142.13	+$0.94	55% 604-485 (1089)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 62.1¢	$41.89	$40.67	-$1.23	53% 8999-8039 (17038)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 40.7¢	$41.42	$34.62	-$6.8	79% 11666-3099 (14765)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$6.95	$9.9	+$1.26	46% 1330-1537 (2867)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$7.73	$7.98	+$0.25	59% 10674-7364 (18038)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$7	$7.1	+$0.1	53% 21911-19053 (40964)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$5.06	$4.37	-$0.31	53% 7655-6778 (14433)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 42.1¢	$3.62	$3.25	+$1.72	57% 17905-13394 (31299)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$59.02

Value

$158.26

PnL

+$102.22

Record

48%

2103-2265 (4368)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$138.86

Value

$142.13

PnL

+$0.94

Record

55%

604-485 (1089)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.89

Value

$40.67

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

8999-8039 (17038)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$41.42

Value

$34.62

PnL

-$6.8

Record

79%

11666-3099 (14765)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.95

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$1.26

Record

46%

1330-1537 (2867)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.73

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

10674-7364 (18038)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

21911-19053 (40964)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

7655-6778 (14433)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$1.72

Record

57%

17905-13394 (31299)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.