Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 5?

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (37%) · Yes at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 37%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$226.79

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 56¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 19 top traders (37%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$900.16

Total Shares1,317

Combined PnL+$70.11

No12 traders

Total Value$208.48

Total Shares528

Combined PnL+$156.68

Yes — 37%No — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 57¢	$758.09	$523.08	+$90.92	41% 799-1129 (1928)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 68¢	$185.48	$169.12	-$16.37	56% 631-505 (1136)
BI Bilberry	Yesavg 55.1¢	$113.36	$143.97	+$8.48	53% 3825-3406 (7231)
LucerysCTR	Noavg 37.3¢	$147.96	$64.86	+$19.39	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 66.9¢	$36.74	$32.17	-$4.57	54% 10037-8676 (18713)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$22.46	$29.93	+$7.47	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
Istaroth	Yesavg 60.9¢	$358.2	$26.18	-$9.71	14% 461-2758 (3219)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$24	$23.88	+$2.77	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 41.1¢	$29.84	$20.04	+$1.36	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$19.17	$18.53	+$93.42	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 37.3¢	$96.79	$18.02	+$31.24	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$15.75	$9.12	-$0.07	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 35.9¢	$9.2	$7.81	+$0.43	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$5.28	$4.87	+$0.66	50% 659-658 (1317)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$3.1	$4.1	+$1	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$6.51	$3.68	+$0.19	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$6.85	$3.65	-$1.18	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.5	+$0.1	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$1.64	$2.15	+$1.27	32% 2522-5398 (7920)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$758.09

Value

$523.08

PnL

+$90.92

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$185.48

Value

$169.12

PnL

-$16.37

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

Bilberry

Yes

Invested

$113.36

Value

$143.97

PnL

+$8.48

Record

53%

3825-3406 (7231)

LucerysCTR

Invested

$147.96

Value

$64.86

PnL

+$19.39

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.74

Value

$32.17

PnL

-$4.57

Record

54%

10037-8676 (18713)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$22.46

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$7.47

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$358.2

Value

$26.18

PnL

-$9.71

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$23.88

PnL

+$2.77

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$29.84

Value

$20.04

PnL

+$1.36

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$19.17

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$93.42

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$96.79

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$31.24

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$0.43

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$1

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.19

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$1.18

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$1.27

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 19 top traders (37%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.