Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 3?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 62¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 3

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$135.15

Combined PnL

$12.57

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$99.77

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$10.89

No3 traders

Total Value$35.38

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$1.68

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$56.84	$66.27	+$9.43	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$21.28	$20	-$0.64	17% 393-1939 (2332)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$15.3	$17.33	+$2.02	54% 8861-7601 (16462)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$11.4	$13.5	+$2.1	18% 4051-18946 (22997)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$10.2	$11.55	+$1.35	62% 13833-8580 (22413)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$8.2	$6.5	-$1.7	55% 25912-21183 (47095)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.84

Value

$66.27

PnL

+$9.43

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.28

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.64

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$2.02

Record

54%

8861-7601 (16462)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.4

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$2.1

Record

18%

4051-18946 (22997)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$1.35

Record

62%

13833-8580 (22413)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$1.7

Record

55%

25912-21183 (47095)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.