Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 6?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 37¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 6

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$427.75

Combined PnL

-$25.16

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 36.5¢

-19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$121.99

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$5.54

No8 traders

Total Value$305.76

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$30.71

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Yesavg 52.8¢	$92.55	$98.2	+$5.64	44% 810-1039 (1849)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$109.68	$97.06	-$12.61	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$77.35	$74.62	-$2.73	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$66.46	$60.53	-$5.93	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$28.03	$25.83	-$2.2	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$23.9	$23.79	-$0.1	53% 3840-3419 (7259)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$16.8	$16.4	-$0.4	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$19.23	$15.72	-$3.51	40% 1094-1616 (2710)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$15.38	$12.3	-$3.07	50% 9812-9798 (19610)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$3.53	$3.29	-$0.24	55% 4438-3636 (8074)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.55

Value

$98.2

PnL

+$5.64

Record

44%

810-1039 (1849)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$109.68

Value

$97.06

PnL

-$12.61

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$77.35

Value

$74.62

PnL

-$2.73

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$66.46

Value

$60.53

PnL

-$5.93

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$28.03

Value

$25.83

PnL

-$2.2

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.9

Value

$23.79

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

3840-3419 (7259)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$19.23

Value

$15.72

PnL

-$3.51

Record

40%

1094-1616 (2710)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$3.07

Record

50%

9812-9798 (19610)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.