Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 2?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 75¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 2

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$115.12

Combined PnL

-$21.76

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.98

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$33.87

No5 traders

Total Value$74.14

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$12.11

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$70.25	$38.95	-$31.31	47% 718-795 (1513)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$35.56	$38.95	+$6.64	56% 14488-11246 (25734)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72¢	$15.19	$17.83	+$2.64	—
balthazar<$100	Noavg 73¢	$6.52	$7.55	+$1.03	61% 21436-13697 (35133)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.69	$5.92	+$1.22	58% 1975-1416 (3391)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.32	$3.9	+$0.58	—
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$4.6	$2.04	-$2.56	51% 1968-1918 (3886)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.25

Value

$38.95

PnL

-$31.31

Record

47%

718-795 (1513)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.56

Value

$38.95

PnL

+$6.64

Record

56%

14488-11246 (25734)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$17.83

PnL

+$2.64

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$6.52

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$1.03

Record

61%

21436-13697 (35133)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$1.22

Record

58%

1975-1416 (3391)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.58

Record

—

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$2.56

Record

51%

1968-1918 (3886)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.