Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 5?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $817 held · ends Nov 5

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$816.87

Combined PnL

-$3.81

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$816.64

Total Shares825

Combined PnL-$2.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$1.6

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.3¢	$178.71	$178.07	-$0.64	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.3¢	$147.8	$147.21	-$0.59	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.5¢	$248.43	$140.55	-$0.41	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$69.35	$69.27	-$0.09	44% 2192-2843 (5035)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$56.53	$56.47	-$0.06	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$54.33	$54.27	-$0.07	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$41.18	$41.07	-$0.1	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$36.87	$36.83	-$0.05	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.76	$29.69	-$0.07	50% 9800-9775 (19575)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$24.89	$19.88	-$0.02	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.63	$19.6	-$0.02	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$10.96	$10.92	-$0.04	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$6.85	$6.83	-$0.02	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$6.01	$6	-$0.02	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	+$0	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$1.7	$0.1	-$1.6	20% 2590-10277 (12867)

balthazar

Invested

$178.71

Value

$178.07

PnL

-$0.64

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

smallreceipt

Invested

$147.8

Value

$147.21

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

Lucerys

Invested

$248.43

Value

$140.55

PnL

-$0.41

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

123987456<$100

Invested

$69.35

Value

$69.27

PnL

-$0.09

Record

44%

2192-2843 (5035)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$56.53

Value

$56.47

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$54.33

Value

$54.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$41.18

Value

$41.07

PnL

-$0.1

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$36.87

Value

$36.83

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

9800-9775 (19575)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$24.89

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.63

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.96

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.6

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.