Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 6?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$89.82
-$7.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $25.46 | $23.29 | -$2.16 | 61% 15003-9455 (24458) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $22.85 | $21.24 | -$1.61 | 44% 6591-8244 (14835) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $19.23 | $17.7 | -$1.53 | 76% 13050-4194 (17244) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $19.35 | $17.7 | -$1.65 | 47% 2253-2525 (4778) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $10.42 | $9.89 | -$0.54 | 53% 23096-20320 (43416) |
Invested
$25.46
Value
$23.29
PnL
-$2.16
Record
61%
15003-9455 (24458)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$21.24
PnL
-$1.61
Record
44%
6591-8244 (14835)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.23
Value
$17.7
PnL
-$1.53
Record
76%
13050-4194 (17244)
Invested
$19.35
Value
$17.7
PnL
-$1.65
Record
47%
2253-2525 (4778)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$0.54
Record
53%
23096-20320 (43416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.