Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 2?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 47¢ · $743 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$743.32
$33.14
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $380.51 | $363.89 | -$12.74 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 40.4¢ | $201.72 | $259.32 | +$47.63 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $59.28 | $55.05 | -$3.7 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 50.8¢ | $38.96 | $39.96 | +$1 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $24.14 | $25.1 | +$0.97 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
Invested
$380.51
Value
$363.89
PnL
-$12.74
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
IstarothInvested
$201.72
Value
$259.32
PnL
+$47.63
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Invested
$59.28
Value
$55.05
PnL
-$3.7
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
Invested
$38.96
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$1
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$24.14
Value
$25.1
PnL
+$0.97
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.