Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 5?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 100¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$354.08

Combined PnL

-$36.79

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$352.86

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$1.99

No5 traders

Total Value$0.49

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$38.78

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Yesavg 99.9¢	$239.76	$239.88	+$0.12	—
Istaroth	Yesavg 69.5¢	$140.61	$50.01	-$2.76	14% 513-3102 (3615)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57.4¢	$51.74	$35.61	+$3.88	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 97.1¢	$26.61	$27.36	+$0.75	41% 1232-1796 (3028)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$2.25	$0.16	-$2.09	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 1.2¢	$2.41	$0.12	-$2.01	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 8.3¢	$3.95	$0.1	-$3.85	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$17.92	$0.07	-$17.85	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$13.02	$0.04	-$12.98	53% 23170-20401 (43571)

1DVSBSTD

Yes

Invested

$239.76

Value

$239.88

PnL

+$0.12

Record

—

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$140.61

Value

$50.01

PnL

-$2.76

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.74

Value

$35.61

PnL

+$3.88

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.61

Value

$27.36

PnL

+$0.75

Record

41%

1232-1796 (3028)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$2.09

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$2.41

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.01

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.85

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.92

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$17.85

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$13.02

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$12.98

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.