Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 4?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 0.1¢ · $53 held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$52.74

Combined PnL

-$4.01

Smart Money Entry

24.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$44.01

Total Shares534

Combined PnL-$12.15

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.73

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$8.14

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$91.44	$20.89	-$25.01	15% 459-2699 (3158)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 59.8¢	$187.28	$18.13	-$21.15	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.17	$8.73	+$8.14	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$18.26	$3.47	+$0.47	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$28.53	$0.56	-$14.04	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$0.52	$0.22	-$0.3	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 9.2¢	$3.36	$0.13	-$2.76	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 8.8¢	$2.22	$0.1	-$2.12	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$9.07	$0.1	+$84.29	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$1.05	$0.08	-$0.97	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$4.27	$0.08	-$3	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$11.78	$0.08	-$11.7	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$4.5	$0.08	-$2.73	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$17.43	$0.07	-$10.07	50% 634-639 (1273)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$10.95	$0.02	-$3.08	78% 12472-3601 (16073)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$91.44

Value

$20.89

PnL

-$25.01

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$187.28

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$21.15

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$8.14

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.26

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$28.53

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$14.04

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.76

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.12

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$9.07

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$84.29

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.97

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$3

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$11.78

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$11.7

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.73

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$17.43

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$10.07

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.08

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.