Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 2?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 46¢ · $55 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$54.82
$4.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $38.33 | $43.68 | +$5.35 | 59% 1948-1378 (3326) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $8.08 | $7.52 | -$0.51 | 18% 373-1692 (2065) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $3.62 | $3.62 | +$0 | 56% 14308-11101 (25409) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.