Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 2?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $238 held · ends Nov 2

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$237.7

Combined PnL

$3.37

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 46¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$189.3

Total Shares463

Combined PnL+$2.47

No3 traders

Total Value$48.4

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$0.9

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 39.1¢	$106.29	$108.6	+$2.32	50% 675-675 (1350)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.1¢	$38.33	$40.5	+$2.16	59% 1929-1356 (3285)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$42.21	$40.2	-$2.01	50% 1916-1879 (3795)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$35.85	$35.99	+$0.14	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 59¢	$8.08	$8	-$0.03	18% 366-1654 (2020)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 46¢	$3.62	$4.41	+$0.79	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.29

Value

$108.6

PnL

+$2.32

Record

50%

675-675 (1350)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.33

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$2.16

Record

59%

1929-1356 (3285)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.21

Value

$40.2

PnL

-$2.01

Record

50%

1916-1879 (3795)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$35.85

Value

$35.99

PnL

+$0.14

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.79

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.