Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 7?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 56¢ · $84 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$84.47
$9.84
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $39.02 | $52.48 | +$13.46 | 38% 863-1426 (2289) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $18.9 | $18.37 | -$0.52 | 53% 4105-3676 (7781) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $8.8 | -$3 | 53% 23789-20956 (44745) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.54 | $4.44 | -$0.1 | 58% 21353-15491 (36844) |
Invested
$39.02
Value
$52.48
PnL
+$13.46
Record
38%
863-1426 (2289)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$18.37
PnL
-$0.52
Record
53%
4105-3676 (7781)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$8.8
PnL
-$3
Record
53%
23789-20956 (44745)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$4.44
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
21353-15491 (36844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.