Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 2?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 81¢ · $317 held · ends Nov 2

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$316.81

Combined PnL

-$19.36

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$170.88

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$1.47

No4 traders

Total Value$25.29

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$17.89

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$84.01	$120.64	+$8.91	50% 725-718 (1443)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.1¢	$114.59	$67.72	-$1.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.3¢	$14.57	$52.92	+$10.63
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 13.8¢	$24.55	$112.29	-$3.16	55% 554-446 (1000)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 64.3¢	$31.23	$34.21	+$2.99	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$13.74	$12.35	-$1.39	35% 698-1270 (1968)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$22.23	$9.24	-$12.99	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$9.59	$8.83	-$0.77	47% 1566-1776 (3342)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$8.69	$8.05	-$0.64	54% 7342-6317 (13659)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$7.38	$7.49	+$0.11	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$5.94	$2.6	-$3.33	37% 633-1096 (1729)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$1.27	$1.09	-$0.18	38% 751-1204 (1955)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$84.01

Value

$120.64

PnL

+$8.91

Record

50%

725-718 (1443)

Both legs:

No$114.5971.1¢-$1.72

Yes$14.5717.3¢+$10.63

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$24.55

Value

$112.29

PnL

-$3.16

Record

55%

554-446 (1000)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$34.21

PnL

+$2.99

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$13.74

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$1.39

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$22.23

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$12.99

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.59

Value

$8.83

PnL

-$0.77

Record

47%

1566-1776 (3342)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.64

Record

54%

7342-6317 (13659)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.11

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$3.33

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.