Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 31¢ · $380 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$379.71
$41.11
23.4¢ → 31¢
+32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $228 | $274.47 | +$46.48 | 50% 647-636 (1283) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $49.6 | $48.61 | -$0.99 | 59% 1808-1259 (3067) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $25.06 | $30.48 | -$1.61 | 55% 410-334 (744) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $12.17 | $12.35 | +$0.18 | 53% 6541-5757 (12298) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $60.78 | $10.85 | -$4.14 | 57% 13779-10552 (24331) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $1.75 | $2.95 | +$1.2 | 73% 8254-3130 (11384) |
Invested
$228
Value
$274.47
PnL
+$46.48
Record
50%
647-636 (1283)
Invested
$49.6
Value
$48.61
PnL
-$0.99
Record
59%
1808-1259 (3067)
Invested
$25.06
Value
$30.48
PnL
-$1.61
Record
55%
410-334 (744)
Invested
$12.17
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
6541-5757 (12298)
Invested
$60.78
Value
$10.85
PnL
-$4.14
Record
57%
13779-10552 (24331)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$1.2
Record
73%
8254-3130 (11384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.