Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 1?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 45¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 1

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$362.31

Combined PnL

-$18.23

Smart Money Entry

37.5¢ → 44.5¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$202.58

Total Shares609

Combined PnL-$25.6

No4 traders

Total Value$159.74

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$7.37

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 36.8¢	$210.02	$185.67	-$24.35	47% 675-754 (1429)
HE hello.67	Noavg 65¢	$125.67	$129.52	+$3.85	50% 1843-1820 (3663)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.8¢	$18.16	$16.91	-$1.25	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 51¢	$14.14	$14	-$0.14	20% 318-1310 (1628)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 52¢	$8.86	$11.5	+$2.64	72% 8255-3139 (11394)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 53¢	$3.7	$4.71	+$1.01	53% 6559-5774 (12333)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$210.02

Value

$185.67

PnL

-$24.35

Record

47%

675-754 (1429)

hello.67

Invested

$125.67

Value

$129.52

PnL

+$3.85

Record

50%

1843-1820 (3663)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.16

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$1.25

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$14.14

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.14

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$8.86

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$2.64

Record

72%

8255-3139 (11394)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$1.01

Record

53%

6559-5774 (12333)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.