Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on November 7?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 16¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 7

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$137.3

Combined PnL

$45.2

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$105.77

Total Shares547

Combined PnL+$45.42

No2 traders

Total Value$31.14

Total Shares37

Combined PnL-$0.23

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$49.41	$70.58	+$21.17	53% 4105-3676 (7781)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$9.57	$34.16	+$24.59	40% 847-1254 (2101)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$30.21	$29.02	-$1.19	58% 21353-15491 (36844)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$21.16	$2.13	+$0.97	19% 2910-12341 (15251)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.55	$1.03	-$0.33	28% 2872-7382 (10254)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.41

Value

$70.58

PnL

+$21.17

Record

53%

4105-3676 (7781)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.57

Value

$34.16

PnL

+$24.59

Record

40%

847-1254 (2101)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.21

Value

$29.02

PnL

-$1.19

Record

58%

21353-15491 (36844)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$21.16

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.97

Record

19%

2910-12341 (15251)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.33

Record

28%

2872-7382 (10254)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.3%

15.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$478.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

578.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.