Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on November 8?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $254 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$254.44
$0.83
99.6¢ → 87.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stupid22 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $122.1 | $122.04 | +$0.06 | 96% 878-33 (911) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $96.7 | $96.95 | +$0.24 | 32% 21135-45368 (66503) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $34.37 | $34.89 | +$0.53 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.