Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on November 6?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $7 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$7.04

Combined PnL

$9.33

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$6.35

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$9.31

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$18.25	$5.07	+$0.35	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$59.77	$1.28	+$8.96	52% 30872-28974 (59846)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.3	$0.67	+$0.37	17% 4496-22007 (26503)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$0.37	$0.02	-$0.35	42% 2328-3175 (5503)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59.77

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$8.96

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.37

Record

17%

4496-22007 (26503)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.35

Record

42%

2328-3175 (5503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.