Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 7?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $410 held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$410.14

Combined PnL

$255.34

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 100¢

+85% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$336.76

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$238.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$73.38

Total Shares596

Combined PnL+$16.91

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 21.9¢	$62.75	$166.15	+$213.86	53% 4565-4056 (8621)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86¢	$76.96	$89.41	+$12.45	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$2.82	$39.68	+$36.86	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$33.75	$38.45	+$4.69	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$54.93	$33.22	-$21.71	38% 887-1421 (2308)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$32.47	$22.76	+$3.43	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$15.99	$19.98	+$3.99	13% 589-3865 (4454)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$122.19	$0.48	+$1.76	70% 14140-6050 (20190)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$62.75

Value

$166.15

PnL

+$213.86

Record

53%

4565-4056 (8621)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$76.96

Value

$89.41

PnL

+$12.45

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$39.68

PnL

+$36.86

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.75

Value

$38.45

PnL

+$4.69

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.93

Value

$33.22

PnL

-$21.71

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.47

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$3.43

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$15.99

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$3.99

Record

13%

589-3865 (4454)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$122.19

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$1.76

Record

70%

14140-6050 (20190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.