Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 6?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 45¢ · $46 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$45.8
-$1.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $16.28 | $15.84 | -$0.44 | 42% 7144-9973 (17117) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $13.8 | $13.2 | -$0.6 | 61% 15009-9460 (24469) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.5¢ | $6.57 | $6.35 | -$0.21 | 75% 13065-4252 (17317) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.7¢ | $5.15 | $4.85 | -$0.3 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $3.74 | $3.72 | -$0.02 | 49% 8980-9510 (18490) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $1.75 | $1.83 | +$0.08 | 43% 818-1092 (1910) |
Invested
$16.28
Value
$15.84
PnL
-$0.44
Record
42%
7144-9973 (17117)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
61%
15009-9460 (24469)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.57
Value
$6.35
PnL
-$0.21
Record
75%
13065-4252 (17317)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$4.85
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.72
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
8980-9510 (18490)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.08
Record
43%
818-1092 (1910)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.