Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 4?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $91 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$90.99
-$1.51
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $54.96 | $39.77 | -$0.01 | 78% 12307-3545 (15852) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.58 | $24.77 | +$0.15 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.21 | $10.2 | -$0 | 39% 1052-1657 (2709) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.64 | $9.98 | -$0.04 | 60% 11747-7966 (19713) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.12 | $5.16 | -$0 | 47% 2122-2412 (4534) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $1.76 | $0.16 | -$1.61 | 20% 2564-10155 (12719) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$54.96
Value
$39.77
PnL
-$0.01
Record
78%
12307-3545 (15852)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$24.77
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
Invested
$10.21
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
1052-1657 (2709)
Invested
$22.64
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.04
Record
60%
11747-7966 (19713)
Invested
$7.12
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2122-2412 (4534)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$1.61
Record
20%
2564-10155 (12719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.