Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 5?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$141.31
$8.44
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $79.85 | $79.92 | -$0.08 | 53% 22623-19873 (42496) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $62.83 | $39.96 | +$0.03 | 59% 11831-8157 (19988) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.46 | $8.73 | +$8.27 | 44% 6474-8170 (14644) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.05 | $5.04 | -$0 | 41% 1183-1676 (2859) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.05 | $5.04 | -$0 | 39% 1084-1679 (2763) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.98 | $1.98 | +$0 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $0.42 | $0.63 | +$0.21 | 32% 2511-5383 (7894) |
Invested
$79.85
Value
$79.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
22623-19873 (42496)
Invested
$62.83
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
11831-8157 (19988)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$8.73
PnL
+$8.27
Record
44%
6474-8170 (14644)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
1183-1676 (2859)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
1084-1679 (2763)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.21
Record
32%
2511-5383 (7894)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.