Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on November 8?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.0¢ · $6 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$6
-$0.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $3.06 | $4.2 | +$1.14 | 37% 913-1562 (2475) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $1.3 | $1.2 | -$1.29 | 16% 4635-23687 (28322) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.3 | $0.3 | +$0 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.3 | $0.3 | -$0.45 | 53% 4656-4095 (8751) |
Invested
$3.06
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$1.14
Record
37%
913-1562 (2475)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$1.29
Record
16%
4635-23687 (28322)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$0.45
Record
53%
4656-4095 (8751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.