Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on November 7?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $21 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$20.87
-$13.2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.98 | -$0.01 | 26% 7407-21213 (28620) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $9.72 | $9.98 | +$0.26 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $13 | $0.9 | -$12.1 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.36 | $0.01 | -$1.36 | 36% 1176-2127 (3303) |
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
7407-21213 (28620)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$13
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$12.1
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.36
Record
36%
1176-2127 (3303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.